No commodity is more important for the world economy than crude oil. It, along with coal and natural gas, powers our electricity grids and transport networks, greasing the gears and cogs of our modern life. And when their price shifts, as many readers will painfully remember from the 2021–2023 global energy crisis, the effects on our personal finances and the world economy are considerable.  The post The best way to get oil price forecasts less wrong appeared first on FocusEconomics. read more

Leer en Español  In our latest special PDF report, we examine our Consensus Forecasts for the U.S. fiscal balance and public debt in light of a recent raft of policy changes by the Trump administration. Below are some key takeaways from that report.    Debt on the rise: U.S. public debt has climbed by about 30 The post Our Consensus Forecast for the U.S. fiscal balance and public debt  appeared first on FocusEconomics. read more

Leer en Español Overview of U.S. tariffs and their implementation  Since taking office in January, U.S. President Donald Trump has threatened, implemented and backtracked on tariffs at a dizzying rate, making keeping pace with the latest developments tough. As of 25 July, the United States currently has 25% tariffs in place on most goods from The post The Economic Impact of U.S. Tariffs, Present and Future appeared first on FocusEconomics. read more

Bond yields in major advanced economies have been on the up so far this year. Japanese 30-year bond yields have hit record highs so far in July, while 10-year yields have reached levels not seen in over a decade. In the same month, UK long-term yields climbed to levels last seen in 1998, with 10-year The post A (not so) random walk: Why bond yields are on the rise appeared first on FocusEconomics. read more

Leer en Español Overview: Israel’s recent conflicts and political climate Since 7 October 2023, Israel has been embroiled in its most sustained and multi-fronted conflict in decades. The initial, devastating assault by the Palestinian militant group Hamas, which resulted in 1,200 deaths and the capture of 253 hostages, triggered a massive military response in the The post The Economic Impact of Israel’s Conflicts with its Neighbors appeared first on FocusEconomics. read more

Leer en Español The Iran-Israel conflict remains a major risk for the world economy: The ceasefire between Iran and Israel came quickly, ensuring that the world will—for now—escape the worst-case scenario: A surge in oil prices that shoves up inflation, in turn further hitting a world economy that’s already reeling from Trump’s tariffs. In addition, The post What will be the economic fallout from the Iran-Israel conflict? appeared first on FocusEconomics. read more

Leer en Español For much of its existence, Australia’s economy has been a story of bountiful resources and fortunate circumstances. From its origins as a penal colony, it has evolved into a highly developed, services-driven economy that has enjoyed one of the longest periods of uninterrupted growth in the developed world. However, as the 21st The post Australia’s Economic Landscape: History, Challenges and Future Prospects appeared first on FocusEconomics. read more

Leer en Español On 1 January 2026, Bulgaria is set to adopt the euro, becoming the 21st member of the currency bloc. The move has been years in the making: Over two decades after pegging its currency—the lev, or “lion”—to the euro, and five years after entering the eurozone’s waiting room (ERM II), Bulgaria was The post The “lion” Bulgaria joins the Eurozone pride: What impact will it have?  appeared first on FocusEconomics. read more

In our latest insight piece, we look at the economic outlook in the coming years for Asia’s two largest economies. The post India vs China: The Long-Term Outlook for Asia’s Two Behemoths appeared first on FocusEconomics. read more

Leer en Español President Trump’s latest fiscal foray, dubbed the “One, Big, Beautiful Bill,” is making its way through Congress, promising the most significant tax overhaul since his 2017 legislation. While proponents tout job creation and economic uplift, a closer look at the numbers reveals a potentially perilous path for America’s already strained fiscal health. The post What does Trump’s “beautiful” tax bill mean for the U.S. fiscal position? appeared first on FocusEconomics. read more